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See-Saw Of Season Come-Season Go

Jul 29, 2010  - Craig Lord

The big season is upon us in the race pool: August will witness US nationals, European Championships and Pan Pacific Championships, in that chronological order -  and only by the end of all the thrills and spills will we know where standards have come to rest in born-again swimming since the sport dumped the props available (but not to all) in the 2008 and 2009 shiny suit seasons.

Today and tomorrow we take a look at where swimming has just come from on the clock and where it is heading.

Today: The Depth Of The Slowdown 

As July draws to a close, what we know so far is that the expected slowdown wide and deep has indeed come to pass; we know too that there are some rare examples of big medal hopes who have bucked the trend and gone quicker in textile; what we know is that those who had scant or no access to shiny suits, mostly by virtue of their youth, have been far less affected by the transition back to fairness than some who know that the journey to get back to their 2009 times will take them over hot coals and up sheer cliffs at midday on the edge of the Sahara.

On the cusp of the month that will matter most to how the 2010 season pans out on the world long-course rankings (while recognising that the likes of the Commonwealth and Asian Games will doubtless have their own impact later in the year), the depths of the best 150 to 300 efforts across all Olympic events offer one view of where swimming standards are settling in relation to the shiny suits era, while finer clues to where the top end of the race is heading may be found in a count of consistency among established stars and the breakers racing in the next lane. In some cases, the two lanes merge.

On the numbers of swimmers around the world breaching a given level (using a cut-off time for a notional top 300 in the world in any given year based on standards achieved in the year before the one in focus), the 100m events on each stroke and 200m medley offer an interesting insight as to how 2010 up to mid-July compares to the full picture in 2009 on the clock. The numbers below relate to individuals, ie, single performers, and show a clear gap between the two years. It remains to be seen, of course, what difference the remaining five months of 2010 will make, though the count so far includes the vast majority of world-class athletes who have already breached our notional cut-off time. It is also worth noting that the picture tends to alter most radically in the first seven months of any given year, given that that is when most athletes must pursue best form in order to qualify for international selection at the major meets of the season.

Our comparison runs in columns as follows:

Event/Cut-off time/numbers inside the cut-off 2009/ numbers inside the cut-off 2010

  • Men
  • 100m fr; 51.00; 545; 221
  • 100m bk; 57.00; 312; 165
  • 100m br; 63.50: 389; 195
  • 100m bu; 54.50; 395; 150
  • 200m IM; 2:05.; 297; 160  
  • Women
  • 100m fr: 56.50; 287; 155 
  • 100m bk: 64.00; 397; 249
  • 100m br: 72.00; 437; 243
  • 100m bu: 62.00; 475; 259
  • 200m IM: 2:19.; 331; 194

Some substantial gaps there, the greatest that 100m free among men.

At the very high-end of things, this is how the picture looks in those same events in terms of numbers within a much tougher cut-off time, 2009 full year against 2010 so far:

  • Men
  • 100m fr; 48.00; 16; 0
  • 100m bk; 54.00; 33; 8
  • 100m br; 60.00: 24; 2
  • 100m bu; 52.00; 37; 4
  • 200m IM; 1:59.; 19; 3  
  • Women
  • 100m fr: 54.00; 22; 1 
  • 100m bk: 60.00; 16; 7
  • 100m br: 67.00; 22; 3
  • 100m bu: 58.00; 26; 4
  • 200m IM: 2:10.; 10; 0

There is much more to come this season and the above picture will doubtless change in the heat of US trials, Budapest, Irvine, Delhi and Guangzhou, with a nod to the host venues of the major long-course meets coming up in the months ahead. I would hazard a guess, however, that the gap between the numbers of 2009 and 2010 will still be stark as the sport welcomes in its second year of new FINA suit rules.

Tomorrow, we look at the more relevant trends of 2010, the men and women who have shown either the greatest consistency in each of the Olympic events or have challenged or even breached their shiny best in textile.