This Chinese New Year marks the start of the Year of the Dragon - but not any old dragon. Every 60 years, the Year of the Water Dragon fires into view, a portent of plenty for those in their element, they say.
A good excuse, then, to consider the threat of the nation that took over the role of world swim power No 2 behind the USA in 2011 at a home world championships in Shanghai that delivered 14 medals, including 5 gold, in the race pool.
The era beyond the doping-soaked 1990s has witnessed some noteworthy trends in China, including the development of a large shoal of juniors led by some of the fastest teenagers in the history of the sport, a fair few of whom appear to fall by the wayside on the way to senior waters. Another notable pattern has been the rapid advance of men's swimming.
In 2011, the latest wave from the junior pond included a healthy number capable of doing damage in senior waters. Beyond the likes of Sun Yang, those who joined him on the podium in the 4x200m freestyle were pioneers of the pool: China had never really been close to the action in relays before when it truly counted. In taking bronze in the 4x200m free, Chinese men leap-frogged several nations that have worked for years trying to put together quartets capable of winning medals, including Germany, Australia (working its way back to former glories but now 3sec off the pace of China at a time when China's best have been Down Under soaking up expertise and experience), Japan, Britain, Italy and Russia.
China's head coach Yao Zhengjie emerged from Shanghai world titles pleased but believing that there was more to be done if China was to maintain the world No2 sport and go on to rival the US come London 2012. Little point in crystal balling at a time when the bare sketch of the season is the only thing on the canvas. But we can look back at China's journey at the very helm of the sport (looking at numbers in the top 25 across all Olympic events, men and women) in the past two Olympic cycles 2003-2004 and 2007 to 2008, and the current cycle on the way to London 2012 via a home world titles in Shanghai last summer.
2003:
At the world championships in Barcelona, China finished 5th on the medals table with seven prizes, three gold and four bronze. The strength of its programme beyond the podium at the big event of the year translated to:
Men:
Just three Chinese men were ranked among the top 25 in the world across all events. Wu Peng was among the top 10 in the 200m butterfly and 13th in the 400m medley, Zhao Tao 23rd in the 200m medley, while Ouyang Kunpeng was to be found in the top 10 in the 100m back and top 15 over 200 a year before being banned for using steroids. In relays, Chinese men were ranked No10 in the 4x200m but had no 4x100m quartets capable of reaching the best 25. Among women,
Women:
Across all events among the best 25 performances, Chinese women occupied 28 places in solo events and finished the year No 1 in the 4x100m medley, No 7 and No 3 respectively in the 4x100m and 4x200m free.
2004:
At the 2004 Olympic Games, Chinese swimmers made the podium just twice, winning one gold and one silver, courtesy of Lue Xuejuan's 100m breaststroke victory and silver for Zhu Yingwen, Xu Yanwei, Yang Yu and Pang Jiaying (Li Ji swam heats) in the 4x200m free. The only man to make a final was Wu Peng, 6th in the 200m butterfly, while no relay made the final eight. The strength of its programme beyond the podium at the big event of the year translated to:
Men:
Wu Peng, at 8th in the world in the 200m butterfly and 15th in the 400m medley, and Zhao Tao at 18th in the 200m medley, were the only top 25 representatives from China, while the 4x200m was the only relay ranking, in at 16th.
Women:
Across all events among the best 25 performances, Chinese women occupied 25 places in solo events and finished the year at No4 in the 4x100m medley, No 8 in the 4x100m free and No2 in the 4x200m.
2007:
At the 2007 world championships in Melbourne, China finished 17th on the medals table with a silver, won by Wu Peng in the 200m butterfly, and a bronze, courtesy of the women's medley relay. It was after events in Australia in March that most of China's best efforts of 2007 were clocked, the women's programme moving up to 40 places among the top 25 in the world across all events from efforts swum mostly in domestic waters. The strength of its programme beyond the podium at the big event of the year translated to:
Men:
Just five Chinese men (in eight events) were ranked among the best 25 in the world across all Olympic platforms. Zhang Lin in the 200m, 400m and 1500m freestyle (top 10 in the latter two); Shi Feng in the 100m butterfly; Wu Peng was 4th in the 200m butterfly and Chen Yin among the top 25, and Liu Weijia made the cut in the 200m and 400m medley. National-team relays were ranked 17th, 4x100 free, 9th, 4x200m free, and 17th, 4x100 medley.
Women:
Across all events among the best 25 performances, Chinese women occupied 40 places in solo events, with just 9 of those efforts swum outside of China, while quartets finished 4th in the 4x100m medley and 7th in both the 4x100m and 4x200m free.
2008:
At the home Olympic Games in Beijing, Chinese swimmers stepped up to winning six medals, including gold for Liu Zige in the 200m butterfly - on an improvement from a best of 2:09.45 in 2007 to a 2:04.18 for Olympic victory - three silvers and two bronzes. Zhang Lin, with silver in the 400m freestyle, became the first Chinese man to make the Olympic podium in the race pool.
The strength of its programme beyond the podium at the big event of the year translated to:
Men:
Five men occupied eight places among the top 25 across all events, Zhang Lin leading the way, with Sun Yang joining him on distance freestyle for the first time among the best 25. Beyond Wu Peng maintaining his long-time presence in the 200m butterfly ranks, Zhou Jiawei and Shi Feng gave Chinese men their first Olympic season with men among the best 25. In relays, China had no medley quartet capable of reaching the top 25 but placed a 4x100m free relay at 13th in the world and a 4x200m quartet at 10th.
Women:
China's mark was still being made by women in the main, though after a year in which the women's squad occupied 40 places among the top 25 in all events, the figure dropped dramatically to 22 in a home Olympics year, exactly half of all those efforts swum at the Games in Beijing. Relay quartets finished the year at No3 on medley, No 2 over 4x200m free and No 4 over 4x100m free.
2011:
At a home world championships in Shanghai, Chinese swimmers won more than double the number of medals they had won one Olympic cycle before at the 2007 championships, with five gold, two silver and seven bronze medals for a total of 14, a result that outweighed anything China had done in swimming before discounting the GDR-style tallies of the 1990s at a time when the swim programme in China was drowning in doped athletes, the bulk of more than 40 positive tests pertaining to the highest level of offence. The strength of its programme beyond the podium at the big event of the year translated to:
Men:
China stepped up to 19 places for men among the best 25 across all Olympic events, including results never seen before, such as four 400m IMers in the best 25 in the world, two opt them ranked top 6. At 18th in the 4x100m medley ranks, China's freestyle quartets showed no progress in the 4x100m, ending the year at 17th, but huge progress in the 4x200m, at third courtesy of bronze at a home world titles in Shanghai.
Women:
In 2011, the success of Chinese men masked, to some extent, what was happening in the women's ranks. If the men leapt to 19 places among the top 25 across all Olympioc events, the women boasted 44 places, including several top 3 places and weighty depth in certain events such as 400 free (6 places), 200 'fly (6) and 200 back (5). In relays, China maintained its strength on freestyle at No 3 in the 4x200m and No4 in the 4x100m but stepped up in the 4x100m medley to end the year at No 2 ahead of Australia.
That matched the overall picture at world titles in Shanghai, the US way out ahead, China flying up to world No 2 well ahead of Australia.
"I think the Chinese team's performance is pretty good," China's head coach Yao Zhengjie said. "Some swimmers had not done as good as we had expected, but overall, we have achieved our goal, mission accomplished."
Progress at big events was obvious:
- 3 - 4 7 Barcelona 2003
- 1 1 - 2 Athens 2004
- - 1 1 2 Melbourne 2007
- 1 3 2 6 Beijing 2008
- 4 2 4 10 Rome 2009
- 5 2 7 14 Shanghai 2011
Will China reach double figures at London 2012?
The women performed well, even though the big breakthrough was to be found among men: two gold medals and a silver (400m) for Sun Yang, his bonus a world record in the 1500m free, the first global l/c mark ever to be by a Chinese man over 1500m and the first in all events since Chi Lieh-Yung (on 1:11.6 over 100m breaststroke) in Canton back in 1957. A bronze in the 4x200m free for China's men was among the most unexpected results of the championships, courtesy of Wang Shun (1:47.09), Zhang Lin (1:46.14), Li Yunqi (1:47.30) and Sun Yang (1:45.14).
Even so, China's women, with titles in Olympic events for Zhao Jing (100m back), Jiao Liuyang (200 'fly) and Ye Shiwen (200IM) and silver and bronze medals in the 4x200m free and 4x100m medley, took the bulk of the host nation's spoils.
Yao cited two reasons why the country's men had come on: "Firstly, the height and the size of our men's team, if you look at our relay team, when they won the bronze medal, they stood next to other teams, they are as tall as their counterparts from the western countries. We have some athletes whose heights are close to two metres. From that perspective, we are almost as good as other athletes from countries such as the US.
One of the most cited reasons for China's female success in the pool in the 1990s was that her men were simply not built to compete with the rest of the world at swimming. It didn't ring true then and appears not to be the case now.
"Another reason is the overseas training programme," added Yao in Shanghai last year. Denis Cotterell on the Aussie Gold Coast is among those who have been working with the likes of Sun Yang and several others who contributed to China's leapfrogging of Aussies in the 4x200m free and other events and becoming stronger in distance freestyle than the once mighty Australians.
Yao believed there were good coaches in China but added "Chinese swimming is still relatively underdeveloped. Until we become a leading force in this sport, we will continue to send our swimmers abroad for training."
Shanghai had been a success but there was no guarantee of the same in London, said Yao. "London will not be like the Shanghai world champs, they are different, not comparable," he said. "This time, we are at home, we have everything going for us. When we go to London, we will be facing many difficulties, (and) we must work hard and should not be complacent. Indeed, there are (still) many things we need to work on (and) our goal is to perform better than we did at the 2008 Beijing Olympics."
After the Water Cube, will China have a flight of Water Dragons fit to send smoke off the water at London 2012?
