Twenty eight years ago to the very month, in 1981, sports scientists, coaches and Stasi operatives gathered around a table at an office behind the Berlin Wall and tried to calculate where world records could reasonably be expected to get too by the year 2000 and at what level they would reach their limit.
A chart was compiled, one that might even have been used to control the amount of progress necessary in the pool to stay a stroke ahead in the Cold War in the pool. In wading through some dark shadows of late, I stumbled upon that very chart. It was a projection of what might be achieved on the basis of extrapolating progress achieved from 1972-1980/1 and it ran under the headline: Dreamworld or Real Possibility?
Many will thank heavens that the Berlin Wall did indeed fall. For the purposes of this exercise let's start with some predictions for the Wundermädchen, followed by a glance at the men:
- Women:
- 100m free: 54.79 (WR in 1981); 51.1 (2000); 49.0 (limit)
- 400m free: 4:06.28; 3:49.6; 3:40.3
- 100m breast: 1:10.11; 1:05.4; 1:02.7
- 100m 'fly: 59.26; 55.2; 53.0
- 200m back: 2:11.77; 2:02.8; 1:57.9
- 400m medley: 4:36.29; 4:17.6; 4:07.1
- Men:
- 100m free: 49.44; 46.6; 45.1
- 200m free: 1:46.16; 1:42.9; 1:39.5
- 400m free: 3:50.49; 3:37.3; 3:30.1
- 100 breast: 1:02.86; 59.3; 57.3
- 100 'fly: 54.15; 51.1; 49.4
- 100m back: 55.49; 52.3; 50.6
- 200m IM: 2:03.24; 1:56.3; 1:52.4
- 400m IM: 4:20.05; 4:05.2; 3:57.1
Note the difference in women and men in terms of what truly has been achievable in the intervening years. The 2000 prediction leaves the likes of Thorpe and Phelps close, while Sludnov's historic dip below the minute looks impressive, as does Crocker's 'fly storm. As you might expect, given the building blocks of the predictions [oral turinabol, that sort of thing], the women don't get quite so close. Lethal Leisel Jones gets closest: she would have got to the 2000 time six years too late.
Given the longevity of GDR women's performances in terms of maintaining a place in the all-time top 50 best ever long after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it seemed possible that there may be some correlation between their very slow slide out of currency and the advent of buoyancy and related advantages in what was allowed to happen with suits in 2008. The comparative dramatic drop out of the ranks in the past year is undeniable. Here's a list of what happened in terms of pure numbers of GDR women left in the all-time top 50 across all Olympic solo events in Olympic years 1992 to 2008, including one solitary year, that of 2007, as a marker of where we'd got to before fast-forward year dawned in the pool.
- 1992: 125
- 1996: 117
- 2000: 88
- 2004: 61
- 2007: 40
- 2008: 21
Between 1992 and 2000, GDR women still occupied around a fifth of all places in the all-time top 50 best times ever set across all 13 solo Olympic events. By 2004, they still held on to around a seventh of all places. In the past year, their presence has been reduced to 21 out of 515 places. No GDR men, pre-1990, remain among the best 50 in any event. There is now just one GDR woman left in the all-time top 10: the 8:19.53 at which Anke Mohring held the European record until 2007 is now fifth best ever. It was a time she set in 1987. Her best in 1986 was 8:36.48. Elsewhere, even the most resilient of former world records set by GDR women are starting to wilt under the weight of buoyancy. Here are a few examples, the columns representing the swimmer, event, year of performance, and world rank in 2004, 2007 and 2008, keeping in mind that the last figure covers just one year, not an entire Olympic cycle:
- Rica Reinisch, 100m backstroke (1980): 16; 26; 46.
- Petra Schneider 400m medley (1982): 5; 8; 12.
- Ute Geweniger 200m medley (1981): 6, 10, 18.
- Heike Friedrich 200m free (1987): 9, 18, 31.
- Petra Thumer 400m free (1976): 44; 56; 73.
- Kornelia Ender 200m free (1976): 48; 69; 105.
In reunified Germany, four GDR records remain as national records among women:
- 400m free Anke Möhring 4:05.84 (1989)
- 800m free Anke Möhring 8:19.53 (1987)
- 200m IM Ute Geweniger 2:11.73 (1981)
- 400m IM Petra Schneider 4:36.10 (1982)
One record remains to a former East German international who went on to win the 400m freestyle Olympic crown in 1992: Dagmar Hase, who dedicated that victory to her former GDR teammates, Astrid Strauss, who had by 1992 been banned after testing positive for elevated testosterone levels (one of only two official positives among former GDR swimmers in history, among the many unofficial positives recorded at the IOC accredited laboratory at Kreischa in GDR days), holds the national 200m backstroke record at 2:09.46, which helped her to claim silver at the Bercelona Olympic Games behind the legendary Krisztina Egerszegi (HUN).
There are many ways of looking at what happened when the suit got fast. The above is one more for the list, an odd one, one for Friday 13th, seven days out from a meeting at which arguments will be put to FINA in the debate about what should and should not be allowed in suit design and innovation in an attempt to draw a distinction between maximising and enhancing performance. As a useful guide to those heading into European neutrality, we'll take a look at what the main cause of the 2008 fast-forward was, alongside a check list of items that ought not to be missing from the agenda at the Lausanne Palace Hotel in Switzerland.
